Analysts Warn Florida’s Property Tax Amendment Could Squeeze Pasco County Services

A constitutional amendment that could reshape how Florida funds local government is now headed to the November ballot. State lawmakers approved the measure during a special session in early June, sending voters a question that would sharply raise the amount of a primary home’s value shielded from property taxes — and, over time, push toward eliminating those taxes for most homeowners altogether.

The proposal, championed by Gov. DeSantis under the name “Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes,” cleared the House on a 75–26 vote and the Senate 30–9, according to legislative records and reporting from the special session. The votes largely followed party lines, with a handful of crossovers in each chamber. If at least 60 percent of voters approve it, most of its provisions take effect Jan. 1, 2027.

For Pasco County residents, the appeal is straightforward: a much larger exemption would lower the annual tax bill on a primary home. But the same change would also shrink the single largest funding source for county services — and the version lawmakers sent to the ballot dropped a financial cushion that was meant to protect the communities most exposed to the cut.

What the amendment would actually do

The measure layers several changes into one ballot question. At its center is a phased increase in the homestead exemption, the portion of a primary residence’s assessed value that is not taxed. It would also tighten the rules around other types of property and restrict how the remaining tax dollars can be spent.

The Governor has framed the $250,000 step as a milestone rather than an endpoint. He has said that level would erase property taxes entirely for roughly 60 percent of Florida homeowners, and that a later move to a $500,000 exemption would do the same for about 92 percent. The ballot language itself commands lawmakers to draft a path toward full elimination through general law.

The revenue question at the heart of the debate

Property taxes are the financial backbone of Florida’s local governments. Statewide, they account for roughly 18 percent of county budgets and a similar share of city budgets, according to the Florida Policy Institute. Cutting that base does not eliminate the need to pay for the services it funds — it simply removes the money.

The estimates of how much money are large, and they vary by source and by how far the policy ultimately goes. A House staff analysis projected the measure would cut annual revenue to non-school governments by about $4.6 billion in its first year, climbing to roughly $8.4 billion a year as the exemption fully phases in. Other analyses point in the same direction.

The Florida Association of Counties pegged the collective hit to the state’s 67 counties at about $3.6 billion in fiscal year 2027–28 and $6.4 billion the following year. The Florida Policy Institute estimated counties would lose an average of roughly $4.8 billion annually under the $250,000 exemption, a figure it said could grow to as much as $8.65 billion if the state proceeds to full elimination by fiscal year 2030–31.

It is worth noting what these numbers are not. According to a PolitiFact review published this week, the proposal has not gone through a formal state fiscal impact study, and analysts caution that the exact effect on any given service in any given community is difficult to predict because every city and county relies on property taxes differently.

What it could mean for Pasco County

Pasco is one of Florida’s fastest-growing counties, and that growth is exactly what makes it sensitive to the change. Many residents bought homes in recent years at prices near current market value, which means their assessed values — and the exemptions they could claim — sit squarely in the range the amendment targets. The typical Pasco home is now worth in the neighborhood of $350,000.

That same property tax base funds the services residents depend on. The county’s Fire Rescue operation is supported largely through a property-tax-funded municipal services taxing unit, with a Fire MSTU budget that has run well above $100 million in recent years. Property taxes also help underwrite the Sheriff’s Office, road maintenance, stormwater work and other core functions across communities from Wesley Chapel and Land O’ Lakes to New Port Richey, Hudson, Zephyrhills and Dade City.

DeSantis defended the plan during a stop in Land O’ Lakes, arguing that local governments can absorb the loss. By his own description, the cut would remove roughly 30 percent of the affected local revenue — a sizable share for a county that has leaned on rising property values to keep pace with rapid population growth.

Pasco has not been the only Tampa Bay–area county to run the numbers. In neighboring Hillsborough, the property appraiser’s preliminary analysis projected a roughly $529 million revenue impact in 2027 under the $150,000 exemption, rising to about $726 million in 2028 at the $250,000 level. In Central Florida, Seminole County officials warned the change could cost as much as $409 million.

Those figures are county-specific and not a direct stand-in for Pasco, but they illustrate the scale of the adjustment local governments across the region are weighing.

The rural-county problem and a missing safety net

One of the most consequential changes happened quietly during the special session: lawmakers stripped out a state trust fund that DeSantis had proposed to help the small, rural counties expected to lose the most. Critics of the deletion argued the fund had no dedicated revenue behind it. Sen. Erin Grall, R-Vero Beach, described the ballot version as creating little more than an “empty bank account.”

The concern is rooted in math. In many inland, “fiscally constrained” counties, home values are low enough that a $250,000 exemption would wipe out nearly all homestead property tax — close to full elimination, according to the Florida Policy Institute. Statewide, lawmakers were told that about 28 percent of homes are valued at $250,000 or less; in fiscally constrained counties, most homes fall under that line.

Those counties have the fewest alternative revenue sources to fall back on. House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell, D-Tampa, warned the structure could effectively create “welfare counties” that would have to ask Tallahassee to make them whole. DeSantis has downplayed that exposure, once estimating the cost of covering fiscally constrained counties at around $300 million — a sum he dismissed as “budget dust.” The final ballot measure, however, includes no mechanism guaranteeing that help.

Why an economic downturn worries budget watchers

A recurring theme among local-government advocates is what happens when the economy turns. Property tax revenue is tied to assessed values, which tend to fall during a recession. Layering a large, fixed-dollar exemption on top of a shrinking tax base could deepen losses precisely when local governments face higher demand for services.

The mechanics compound the risk. Because the exemption is a flat $250,000 rather than a percentage, a broad decline in home values would push a larger share of remaining homes fully under the exemption, eliminating even more of the taxable base. At the same time, the lowered 5 percent cap on non-homestead assessment growth limits how quickly revenue from businesses and rentals can recover, and the spending restrictions reduce a county’s flexibility to shift money where it is most needed. Analysts and county groups have warned that this combination leaves local budgets more brittle than they are today.

The Tax Foundation, a national policy group, cautioned that fully replacing Florida property taxes with sales taxes would require an average combined state-and-local rate above 15 percent, and warned that leaning on sales taxes shifts the burden in ways that could leave the state less competitive overall.

The case supporters make

Backers of the amendment frame it first as relief for homeowners squeezed by years of rising assessments and insurance costs. They also emphasize that the measure does not decide anything on its own — it simply puts the question to voters, who would need a 60 percent supermajority to enact it.

Sen. Jonathan Martin, R-Fort Myers, captured that argument on the floor, asking what lawmakers were afraid of in letting residents choose lower taxes for themselves. Senate and House leaders praised the Governor for forcing the issue, and supporters note the final version was amended to shield school funding and to keep money flowing to constitutional offices such as the supervisor of elections, tax collector and property appraiser. In Pasco, Tax Collector Mike Fasano, a longtime former state lawmaker, welcomed the plan, saying it would benefit working families and seniors.

Supporters also argue that local governments have grown faster than inflation and population in recent years and can find efficiencies. Opponents counter, as Florida Policy Institute research director Esteban Leonardo Santis put it, that holding budgets to older spending levels would amount to defunding them because the cost of providing services keeps rising.

What happens next

The amendment is now set for the November 2026 general election ballot. It needs 60 percent approval to become part of the state constitution — a threshold that has historically been difficult to clear in Florida. If voters approve it, most provisions take effect Jan. 1, 2027, with the first exemption increase applying that year and the larger increase following in 2028.

Between now and Election Day, expect more detailed figures from individual property appraisers, county budget offices and advocacy groups on both sides. Pasco residents weighing the question will be balancing a real and immediate cut to their own tax bills against longer-term questions about how the county will continue to pay for the fire, police, road and stormwater services that growth keeps demanding.

Pasco Community Website will continue tracking how the amendment, and any local budget decisions tied to it, could affect residents across the county. For more local news and updates from across Pasco County, visit www.pascocommunity.com and follow Pasco Community Website on Facebook and Instagram.